MNANGAGWA’S FINAL GAMBLE COULD TEAR ZANU PF APART

President Emmerson Mnangagwa is facing his biggest political test yet. Ahead of the Zanu PF annual conference from 13 to 18 October in Mutare, the long-serving leader finds himself at a dangerous crossroads. Should he push forward with his unpopular 2030 plan through a referendum and risk national rejection? Should he use Parliament to delay the 2028 elections and extend his grip on power through the back door? Or will he drop his bid and step down in 2028 as the Constitution demands?

Mnangagwa says he’s a “constitutionalist” and won’t extend his term. Yet just last year, he got Zanu PF to pass a resolution allowing him to stay until 2030. That decision created a path for him to overstay — and block Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, the man who helped install him in 2017.

Today, Mnangagwa and Chiwenga are no longer allies. Mnangagwa now fears that Chiwenga, once in power, could go after his wealth and that of his family. He suspects arrests and asset seizures could follow — not out of justice, but revenge. The fear of retaliation is driving many of Mnangagwa’s political decisions.

Ethnicity plays a key role too. Mnangagwa and his faction do not want another Zezuru leader like Mugabe. And even though they rarely say it out loud, ethnic power struggles shape the politics of Zimbabwe — from cabinet appointments to resource allocation. That’s why Chiwenga’s rise is not just a political threat, but an ethnic one too.

Meanwhile, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, Mnangagwa’s business ally and one of the richest men in the country, has emerged as a possible contender. Though not a formal Zanu PF leader, his name keeps coming up. He’s tried to join the Central Committee, but Chiwenga blocked him. Tagwirei says he has no interest in becoming president, but sources say otherwise. His allies claim he believes his money can buy him power — and maybe even the presidency.

As activists, we must be clear: a Tagwirei presidency would be a disaster for the people. It would turn Zimbabwe into a full-blown corporate dictatorship — run by businessmen with no loyalty to the masses. Tagwirei has made billions through fuel cartels and shady government deals. If he succeeds, Zimbabwe will be handed over to a man whose empire was built not on merit or service, but on extraction, corruption and political connections. The suffering of the poor will deepen, and the line between state and private interest will vanish completely.

Chris Mutsvangwa, the Zanu PF spokesperson, has also shown signs of positioning himself. While he denies having presidential ambitions, his recent moves suggest otherwise. And then there’s General Philip Valerio Sibanda, commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. He is seen by some as Mnangagwa’s preferred successor. Mnangagwa tried to sneak him into the politburo last year, but the move was blocked. Still, the plan remains alive — Sibanda could enter politics after his military retirement at the end of the year.

The power in Zanu PF is shifting fast — from the founding nationalists to war veterans and military elites. The old order is crumbling, and a brutal new one is fighting to emerge. Chiwenga leads that pack, with Sibanda and Tagwirei as dark horses.

But make no mistake. This is not a normal leadership race. It’s a dangerous power game where the people are spectators, not participants. As long as Zanu PF controls the state and succession is decided in secrecy, Zimbabwe will remain stuck in cycles of fear, poverty and violence.

The October conference may seal Zimbabwe’s fate for another generation. It’s time for citizens to speak louder — or risk being ruled by a billionaire whose only loyalty is to profit.